Travel Market Analysis and Ridership Forecasting

To assess the benefits that a new transit line will provide, and determine the operating and capital needs of new service, it is necessary to assess the passenger demand that the proposed service will generate. CTG uses different methods of travel demand forecasting depending on the size of a transit project. For large projects this requires developing and running large regional forecasting models. For small projects this involves creating sketch planning tools and running sensitivity analyses.

Our experience allows us to fit the ridership forecasting effort to a project’s need and the client’s budget. We always strive to present the methods and results in plain language, avoiding technical jargon.

  • Four Step Travel Demand Models (using CUBE, TransCad, EMME2, etc)
  • Activity- and Tour-based Modeling
  • Travel Network Coding and Evaluation
  • FTA STOPS model and Cost per Rider
  • Latent Demand and GIS-based Demand Models
  • Spider Diagram and Desire Line Analyses
  • LEHD Commute and Labor Shed Analyses
  • Data-Driven Models
  • Customized Sketch Tools and Spreadsheet Applications

Our services are built around four primary practice areas. Select an area to learn more about the services we offer and projects we’ve completed:

These are a few examples of our projects where our work involved travel market analysis and ridership forecasting.

Photo South US-1 BRT Improvements Study Broward County, FL In addition to analyzing boarding-to-alighting and travel patterns, CTG estimated ridership using a data-driven model rather than the more traditional 4-step regional travel model. Download case study >

Photo LYNX State Road 50 Alternative Analysis Orlando, FL We developed guideway running times and operating plans, bus feeder networks, ridership model networks, and O&M costs for a range of alternative modes studied over two construction phases. Download case study >

Photo Savannah Area Park-and-Ride Initiative Savannah, GA CTG led a consultant team that evaluated potential park-and-ride corridors and lot locations in the greater Savannah region. A significant effort of this project was estimating commuter travel demand within each corridor. This was completed by utilizing regional travel demand model trip tables, American Community Survey data and Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) data. Download case study >

Photo DART Comprehensive Operations Analysis Dallas, TX As part of our Comprehensive Operations Analysis (aka Moving You Forward) of DART's bus network, we are analyzing mobile device data to understand community travel patterns and markets in real time. Download case study >